2019 assembly elections : Which ways is the wind blowing?

As it is now distinctly becoming clear, 2019 General Elections is a vote for Hindu Identity Assertion.

2014 General Elections showed that minorities (read Muslim) votes and constituency didnt matter and somebody strongly opposed by this community can win clear majority that never happened in 30 years. 2014 General Elections showed that the second largest majority doesnt matter in elections and has become irrelevant.

2019 General Elections is all about Dalit votes and Dalit identity. If you closely observe, you will find that playing with Dalit identity started with flogging of Dalits in Una. This was obviously done with clear intent to polarise Dalit votes against Modi in UP Assembly Elections. But what happened in UP Assembly Elections was totally the opposite. BJP won a handsome margin ofcourse with Dalit (ex Jatav) and OBC (ex Yadav) votes. Then we saw Bhima Koregaon violence. We are now hearing the Dalit angle in MeToo and sexual violence against Dalit women, when MeToo movement is turning against Leftists. However, with Sabarimala, Bengal, and many similar small and big incidences we would see Hindu polarisation breaching all caste and linguistic lines. Only exception will be some states like Tamil Nadu where Dravidian ideology (which is an anti-thesis of Hindutva ideology) rules supreme. We have to see whether Dalit card played by Congress-Left-Islamist (Jai Bheem Jai Meem sloganeers) will work or will Ambedkarites become irrelevant with Dalits agglomerating with larger section of Hindus for BJP.

If Hindu identity assertion card works in favour of BJP in 2019, then the Congress-Left combine will be left with only one card and that is Feminism card. They would well use this card in 2024 elections under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. This feminism card would be a bigger and more potent card riding on latent anger of women against atrocities and mistreatment by men. My sense is that to rake up and play this card for becoming a weapon in 2024, we would see Left using all ideas and narratives from sexual violence to sexual harassment to marital rapes to menstrual leaves to non representation in boards and senior levels in corporates to other fake controversies the way they created controversies in past to create a card to play.

Post 2019, things would become interesting on how BJP counters the feminism card creating movements and controversies initiated by the Left and how it counters the rise of Priyanka Gandhi who would use these controversies as ladder for her rise to power.

Interesting times ahead!!!

Post Author: maxyogi

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